QuantEco's DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 20th Feb-22 rose to a level of 121.9 a new post pandemic high.
Download ReportDART index: Economic activity exceeds pre Omicron levels
QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 20th Feb-22 rose to a level of 121.9 – a new post pandemic high. This marked the fifth weekly expansion with pace of improvement however gradually easing off over the last two weeks. On a WoW basis, this translated into an increase of 2.9% versus 4.6% in the previous week (revised up from 3.6%)
The latest DART reading underscores the economy having pulled out of the Omicron impact completely as it attained a fresh post pandemic high. The impact of Omicron wave has proved to be temporary, interrupting pace of economic recovery only in the month of Jan-22. With the swift decline in COVID infections and continued progress on vaccination, the turnaround in Feb-22 has been led by several states easing restrictions gradually with opening up of schools, and allowing near full occupancy in contact intensive services such as gyms, hotels, theatres among others. A complete removal of restrictions over the course of next few weeks is likely to keep the recovery momentum intact, with year-end seasonality especially in activity indicators and government spending too kicking in next month. As such, we continue to retain our FY22 GDP growth estimate of 9.2%. For Q3 FY22 (to be released on 28th Feb-22), we are estimating growth at close to 5.0% as a favourable base wanes completely but aided by a healthy sequential expansion in pent-up, festive and organic demand.