QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 27th Feb-22 eased marginally from the fresh post pandemic peak touched last week. On a WoW basis, the index nudged lower by 0.7% versus an expansion of 3.3% last week (revised up from 2.9%) – to mark the first contraction in six weeks.
Notwithstanding the marginal downside, DART index continues to remain above the previous pre-Omicron peak. This augurs well from the perspective of growth recovery in Q4 FY22, though the recent outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as a downside risk. The rise in commodity prices including crude oil could weigh on growth, add to inflation and widen the current account deficit from a macro perspective beginning Mar-22, muting the year-end ramp up in activity and support from back-loaded Government spending.
For FY22, we continue to retain our GDP growth estimate of 9.2% against NSO’s second advance estimate of 8.9%. An upside to agriculture and generation of additional fiscal space on account of sharp upward revision in Nominal GDP for FY22 could provide a mild support. For FY23, we continue to expect GDP growth at 7.5%.
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