QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for the week ending 10th Apr-22 posted a marginal increase to 127.3, though remaining below the peak of 131.1 attained two weeks ago. On a WoW basis, this translated into a rise of 1.1% compared to a sharp decline of 4.0% last week (revised lower from -3.8%). At a granular level, the uptick in the week was driven by Rail Passenger Traffic and Online Restaurant Searches, with most other indicators moving largely sideways.
The month of February marked the onset of the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Our DART index, basis weekly high frequency indicators indicated minimal impact on economic activity in Mar-22 of the geopolitical conflict. But the swift run-up in commodity prices, anticipated slowdown in global growth, lagged sizeable pass-through of fuel and other input costs to consumers underway and its impact on disposable incomes are likely to weigh on consumption, private investment and export more emphatically in H1 FY23. As such, on closely monitoring the evolution of risk factors, especially on the geopolitical front we now revise lower our FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.5% earlier.
To get a detailed perspective and outlook, download our report.