QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 30th Jan-22 continued to recoup lost momentum for the second consecutive week. On WoW basis, the index expanded at a faster clip by 4.7% compared to 2.6% in the previous week (revised up from 2.2%)
Despite two consecutive weeks of gains, DART index has suffered a sizeable setback of nearly 10% in the month of Jan-22. If we are to assume that recovery will be as swift (as the slump) over the next few weeks, it is likely that DART index nears the Dec-21 peak by end Feb-21. From a growth perspective, this would mean recovery getting evened out over a period of 2 months. Going forward, some year-end seasonality typically seen in activity indicators and government spending may offer respite in Mar-22.
The recently announced Budget is expected to maintain the growth-inflation balance. The intended capex push should be growth supportive via augmentation of supply side, while the absence of any tax incentives to directly support disposable incomes precludes any imminent stoking of demand side inflationary pressures. Given the revision to FY20 and FY21 GDP data, our FY22 GDP growth estimate stands adjusted lower to 9.2%. For FY23, we are sticking to our growth estimate of 7.5% for now.
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