As per the NSO’s (National Statistical Office) first advance estimate of national income, India’s FY22 real GDP and GVA growth are estimated at 9.2% and 8.6% respectively. The projected GDP growth stands lower than RBI’s estimate of 9.5% held unchanged since Jun-21, and QuantEco Research’s estimate of 9.6%.
We retain our FY22 growth forecast at 9.6% with spread of Omicron on close watch; as we believe that healthy tax collections could provide an extra leg room to GDP growth. For FY23, we are penciling in GDP growth of 7.5%, aided by rollover of pent-up demand and investment cycle taking shape albeit on an uneven basis across sectors. The upcoming Union Budget FY23 will be parsed for fresh stimulus from the Government targeted towards sub-sectors that continue to witness economic scarring.
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