India’s Southwest monsoon on a cumulative basis ended the season almost at par with LPA (Long Period Average), only 1% lower aided by a stellar backloaded catch-up of rainfall in Sep-21. The deficit that was ruling at as high as 10% in last week of Aug-21 was bridged by excessive rainfall in the last month of the season. Standalone, Sep-21 recorded 34.9% excess rainfall, more than compensating the 24.1% shortfall in Aug-21 vs. LPA. Intense rains have been aided by formations of cyclonic circulations, a deep depression and cyclones in second half of Sep-21. Overall, the season’s outcome was in line with IMD’s (India Meteorological Department) forecast released at the start of the season which had forecasted 2021 rainfall to most likely be ‘normal’ at 101% of LPA with a model error of +/-4%.
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