Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy estimates economic activity to have descended with the pace of slowdown continuing to ease. On a WoW basis, the index contracted by 5.4% compared to -6.3% in the previous week (revised up from -5.3%). Since the beginning of Apr-21, the index has retraced by nearly 45% to levels last seen in early Jun-20.
DART index in Apr-21 captured the diminishing mobility along with consumer sentiment which were quick to react to the rising wave of COVID infections. In May-21, the deceleration in the index besides acquiring a more broad-based nature has been led by industry-oriented indicators as stricter lockdowns in most states begin to impinge on production activity. Despite the second wave of COVID having turned a corner, it appears that lockdowns will remain in place until the end of May-21 and perhaps linger on longer in some states well into Jun-21. As such, DART index is still a few weeks away from attaining a local minima.
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