After three consecutive months of recovery, Sep-21 has started on a disappointing note. While still early to make any strong pronouncements, the pace of recovery will be closely watched this month for its sustenance. The continued opening up at state-level especially of non-essential services, onset of festive season and vaccinations attaining yet another weekly record (daily average pace of 7.6 mn vs. 7.4 mn last week) are certainly supportive. However, we need to closely monitor the recent rise in COVID cases.
Looking ahead, vaccinations can allow the economy to attain the escape velocity to exit the pandemic orbit. The pick up in the pace of vaccinations seen lately allows us to believe that India can inoculate 100% of its adult population by the end of Dec-21. This in our minds will be a critical pivot – for consumer confidence, investment outlook and monetary policy normalisation. The impact on domestic macroeconomy and its stakeholders is explored in detail in our latest India Macrobook
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