DART index reverting to a post pandemic peak is a validation of restoration in economic activity continuing into the fourth consecutive month (began in Jun-21). The onset of the festive season could perhaps keep this momentum ticking into second half of Sep-21 as well; along with swift progress on vaccinations. The daily average pace of vaccinations rose last week to a record 8.0 mn compared to 7.6 mn in the previous week with India vaccinating 40.9% of its population with a single dose (fully vaccinated 12.8%). At this pace, we estimate that nearly 100% of the adult population can be partially vaccinated by end of the year.
From growth perspective, premised on the continuous sequential recovery seen up to Sep-21 so far (and assuming no economic shocks in the near term), India’s GDP level is estimated to return to it’s pre-pandemic level in Q3 FY22. The anticipated pent-up demand for goods and vengeance demand for services driven by the vaccination pivot, global growth led export momentum along with accommodative fiscal and monetary policy reinforce our full year growth forecast of 10% with mild downside risks.
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