Our proprietary Daily Activity & Index Tracker (DART) Index for the Indian economy estimates economic activity to have posted its first material uptick in 12 weeks for the week ending 30th May-21. On a WoW basis, the index rose by 4.8% with last week’s change revised up to +0.9% (from -0.1% earlier). We had flagged off a flattening of loss in economic activity in our previous update.
The uptick in DART index is encouraging and points towards economic activity bottoming out, but it is perhaps a bit early to rejoice as some of the key indicators still remain in red. While some states/cities that have successfully bent the COVID curve are commencing to ease curbs, many states have extended lockdowns well into Jun-21. Given the magnitude and impact of second wave, the exit from lockdowns at the state-level can be expected to be guarded and gradual at best. Amidst the sequential setback to growth in Q1, our revised FY22 GDP growth estimate stands at 10.0%. The DART index indicates that normalization in economic activity may be well underway by the end of Q1.
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