Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for the week ending 17th Oct-21 rose a tad, continuing to maintain its post pandemic high at 114.6 The pick up was mild at 0.7%WoW compared to last week’s strong gain of +3.8% (revised upwards from +2.9%); possibly somewhat suppressed by seasonality owing to the holiday on account of Dussehra (on 15th Oct-21)

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Oct 19, 2021

QuantEco DART Index Economic activity up a notch

COVID cases last week moderated further to ~15k – a level last seen in early Mar-21 before the onset of second wave of infections. The ensuing comfort continues to allow easing of restrictions and improvement in mobility into the festive season. Vaccinations however gave up momentum for the second consecutive week, clocking a daily pace of 3.7 mn doses compared to 6.2 mn and 6.8 mn in previous two weeks. As such, so far, Oct-21 has clocked an average pace of 5.2 mn doses a day compared to a record pace of 7.9 mn in Sep-21. But interestingly, last week saw incremental pace of 2nd dose recipients overtaking the 1st dose recipients for the first time. This means that with breadth of coverage (1st dose) now gaining critical mass, the depth of coverage (2nd dose) has started to gain momentum.

With the festive season in full swing and cases remaining low, demand for high-contact services is witnessing a strong revival with the progress on vaccination further boosting consumer confidence. Additionally, early signs of pent-up and vengeance demand in goods are also visible. While this augurs well from growth perspective, we do remain watchful of supply-side disruptions (from global energy crisis, domestic coal and semi-conductor shortages). We hold on to our FY22 GDP growth estimate of 10% with mild downside risks, amidst continued strength in exports led by global growth recovery and broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.