Continuing to offer comfort, COVID cases have dwindled in India close to ~20k currently i.e., nearly half of the count a month ago. However, the pace of vaccinations has let up some momentum in Oct-21 so far, clocking an average daily pace of 6.2 mn doses compared to a record 7.8 mn in Sep-21.
With the festive season in full swing and cases remaining low, improvement in mobility remains impressive. It appears that movement of people has transcended beyond the comfort of local neighborhood to across cities and states, with rail and air based travel clocking robust demand. This augurs well for revival of services sector, along with progress on vaccination. From manufacturing sector’s perspective, the supply-side concerns from global energy crisis, domestic coal shortages, possible albeit minor spill overs from China’s credit market and the deceleration in domestic auto production amidst semi-conductor shortages, remain on watch.
We hold on to our FY22 growth estimate of 10% with mild downside risks, amidst an anticipated record Kharif output, continued strength in exports led by global growth recovery and broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.
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