Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index continues to remain in its ninth consecutive week of expansion
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index Momentum in economic activity wearing off
Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index continues to remain in its ninth consecutive week of expansion, with the index now only ~3.5% below Feb-21 peak. For the week ending 18th Jul-21, the index climbed to 99.9 from 98.7 previously, to record a WoW rise of 1.2% - the slowest in past eight weeks. However, at a granular level, there remains unevenness in recovery.
Expectedly, DART index is beginning to level off as the current levels near baseline of 100. Looking ahead, impending threat of virus variants is likely to imply a more drawn out recovery in consumer sentiment and private demand, at least in Q2 FY22. A slower decline in new COVID cases along with select states/districts witnessing a nascent rise in infections remains on close watch. Notwithstanding the average daily pace of vaccinations improving last week, it remains below the peak of 6.2 mn recorded in last week of Jun-21. We estimate that a pace 6 mn doses/day could allow single-dose population coverage to rise towards 60% before 2021 end - a critical prerequisite for a stronger sequential growth rebound to take shape Q3 FY22 onwards led by demand biased in favour of ‘experiences’ more than goods. We hold on to our FY22 GDP growth of 10.0%, as added tailwinds from a normal monsoon, global recovery push to exports and conducive fiscal and monetary policies support.
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